Amazing what happens when Democrats try even slightly.
I wouldn’t hold my breath on these numbers.
Another poll of 1,350 registered voters by Emerson College put Biden ahead of the Republican by two percentage points, 51 percent to 49 percent. The survey was carried out between March 5 and 6.
Of the 6,334 registered voters surveyed by Morning Consult between March 1 and 5, 44 percent would vote for Biden and 43 percent for Trump.
And Biden would beat Trump 43 percent to 42 percent, according to TIPP polling.
1-2% points is a slimmer margin than Gore had against Bush in '00 and Hillary had against Trump in '16. Both are inside the margin of error, even.
Looks even worse when you get to the bigger battleground states - your Arizona and Georgia and Pennsylvanias - where people are seriously pilled on the Invading Hordes of Illegals narratives. Nevermind the Midwest states - Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan - with the large enclaves of Muslim voters, who aren’t super thrilled with the genocides Biden keeps funneling money and military equipment into.
You know he was behind, right? These polls reflect trajectory, not dominance. I’d all but given up hope completely before this 🤷
I agree he needs the leftist and Muslim vote in the rust belt. But besides a reversal I’m decades of US single state policy, which he’s now done, along with investing in aid infrastructure, not sure what more can be done. People wanna get Trump elected to spite themselves, can’t get through to them- equally cultist as GOP. The 2024 Bernie Bro.
These polls reflect trajectory
Then Biden is fucked, because he can’t do State of the Unions all the way from March to November and hope to ride the bump off each one.
But besides a reversal I’m decades of US single state policy, which he’s now done, along with investing in aid infrastructure, not sure what more can be done.
STOP. SENDING. WEAPONS. TO. ISRAEL.
Fuck, if he really wants to go balls-to-the-wall, he can pick up the phone and tell Linda Thomas-Greenfield to call a meeting of the UN Security Council for the purpose of organizing an international peacekeeping force into Gaza. Same shit we were more than happy to do during the Bosnian Genocide and the Guatemalan Civil War and the East Timorese Crisis.
People wanna get Trump elected
This has nothing to do with Trump. This is between Biden and the tens of thousands of American Muslims who are getting news of family and friends slaughtered in Palestine on a daily basis.
This is between Biden and the tens of thousands of American Muslims who are getting news of family and friends slaughtered in Palestine on a daily basis.
And those of us who have no skin in the game but just hate seeing Israel steamroll over civilians and blatantly lie about it.
And those of us who have no skin in the game
Continue to show callous disregard for the now north of 30,000 dead, while quizzically demanding a reason for Biden’s collapsed support.
Remind them Trump want to make it worse
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-israel-gaza-finish-problem-rcna141905
Hundreds of thousands of people in Rafa are starving to death right now. You think they’re going to live to see next January?
I mean… you kinda lose all good will from me when you espouse nonsense like “this has nothing to do with Trump” when we’re talking about his being elected as a result of the decision to not vote against him. So your words don’t mean anything when he’s president and affects our lives. And supporting genocide in Gaza. And supporting genocide in Ukraine. The things he’s said he will do if elected. Yeah, I think you’re feigning leftism to get Trump elected. Because logic, as I’ve clearly laid it out. But feel free to talk about your feelings and hopes as if they’re the same.
when you espouse nonsense like “this has nothing to do with Trump”
This is a US foreign policy that goes back to the Truman Administration and has continued uninterrupted across virtually every administration since (with some marginal credit given to Obama who had beef with Netanyahu from day one).
So your words don’t mean anything
Plugging my ears and shouting “You need to support my guy to end the genocide” but he’s been president for three years and the genocides in Ukraine and Palestine still won’t end.
with the genocides Biden keeps funneling money and military equipment into
Yaaaaa… so you can fight Putin in Ukraine or you can simply do nothing and wait till he attacks a nato country. Lots cheaper to do it while he is in Ukraine.
you can fight Putin in Ukraine or you can simply do nothing
“You” appear to be doing nothing. After that ill-fated Reddit Expeditionary Force got shelled into fine paste, none of the Keyboard Commandos on this site or any other appear to be booking tickets out to Kyiv to enlist.
This isn’t a war between Western Liberals and The Slavic Menace. Its Ukrainian conscripts press ganged into the meat grinder, while bowtie dipshits on the cable news shows clap. “You” only know how to post. “You” haven’t fired a shot in this war.
Its
UkrainianRussian conscripts press ganged into the meat grinderFTFY
Has Zelensky’s military figured out how to press gang Russians?
Amazing what a stellar State of the Union can do, but as always… national polls are useless because we don’t have national elections.
Watch the polling in the key swing states. So far, it doesn’t appear that new polling has been done since the State of the Union.
These are the states we want to see swing Biden.
Arizona:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/Georgia:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/Michigan:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/Nevada:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/New Mexico:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-mexico/North Carolina:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/Pennsylvania:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/Virginia:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/virginia/Wisconsin:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/Yeah. Article is bragging about 3 national polls, where Biden is winning by 3% at most…
Because of the system, Dems need popular vote, to make up for the flyover states going conservative and be worth more due to electoral college
If Biden was polling 5% over trump nationally, we should be concerned.
And I have zero faith in the DNC and people running Joe’s campaign to focus on the right states to win the electoral college.
And I have zero faith in the DNC and people running Joe’s campaign to focus on the right states to win the electoral college.
That’s why I put North Carolina in the watch list. There are folks out there who think it’s winnable a) because they assume the Nikki Haley vote will flip to Biden, and b) because the Republicans just picked a batshit CRAZY candidate for Governor on Super Tuesday.
We really need to see new polling there.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/
As of 2/29 to 3/3 it’s either Trump +12 or +14, but some folks are still saying Biden can win.
Doubt.
a) because they assume the Nikki Haley vote will flip to Biden
If Biden moves far enough right to grab a handful of Haley voters… Hed lose 10x the votes he gains.
The most we should try to get republicans to do is abstain, the payoff for courting Republican votes has never been worth it.
Biden is definitely trying to get Haley voters, it’s just a god awful strategy
Yup. Turning off Democrats is not going to win Republicans.
I saw a Jordan Klepper clip yesterday where he talked to Haley voters…
Most said Trump was terrible, that 1/6 was a violent insurrection, but that they’d still have to “pick the lesser of two evils” and vote trump because they’d never vote Democrat.
It just doesn’t make any sense.
Neither Haley voters or Biden’s campaign team. None of what they’re doing makes sense.
And I have zero faith in the DNC and people running Joe’s campaign to focus on the right states to win the electoral college.
Why? They’ve done it once already.
Against an incumbent trump when people believed Biden’s campaign promises…
This time being the incumbent hurts Biden. 4 years ago if someone said Biden would be supporting a genocide, trying to codify Trump’s border policies, and calling migrants “illegals” I’d have laughed in their face.
Biden is less popular now then when all most voters knew about him was he was Obama’s VP.
Dude took 36 years to win his first presidential primary, he wasn’t that popular to begin with.
So incumbency helped trump and hurts Biden. Okay.
Did trump win as an incumbent?
No, because he was incredibly unpopular.
Both Biden and trump are currently sitting just under 1/3 favorably.
Being an unpopular incumbent hurt trump in 2020, and it will hurt Biden in 2024.
Historically incumbent presidents always have the upper hand.
The “incumbent advantage” is often misunderstood. Because a weak incumbent gets primaried.
So the DNC says primarying a candidate hurts them, and why NH didn’t get delegates this year.
The reality is only weak incumbents get primaried. Whether they get challenged or not in the primary doesn’t make them weaker or stronger.
By taking a primary away, we’re not helping a candidate, we’re throwing away the option to run a more popular candidate. Which hurts the party and every American if it means trump is elected.
It’s like saying the only reason trump got caught on his tax fraud was he ran for president. Running for president brought attention to it, but he cheated on taxes decades before running and could have been prosecuted at any time.
An actual primary wouldn’t have made Biden unpopular, it would have just made how unpopular he is more public, while giving him a public stage to move left to his voters and win some over for the general.
Hiding it doesn’t make it better, it just gives people a false sense of security, which ironically often leads to lower turnout.
And as always:
Low turnout is how republicans become presidents
Hes more popular for me. I still can’t believe how much he has done in one term with an adversarial congress that improves my quality of life. and yeah I feel sad about international affairs but I vote on internal affairs. especiallly when its so obvious how much worse the alternative is internationally.
Hes more popular for me
Well, less then a third of Americans hold a favorable opinion of Biden like you do…
Just slightly better than trumps numbers.
https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-unpopular-polls-2024-election-1877870
I hope it’s enough, and I do feel a lot more comfortable now then a week ago. We just need Biden to stop reaching out to Haley voters and start trying to get liberal votes on his side.
It’s just insane to me that less than two thirds of the country hold a favorable opinion of either candidate. No matter what happens, the majority of the country will be unhappy with it.
That means depressed turnout, and those are the only elections republicans have a chance at winning. I’d rather not give them that chance
Polls don’t mean shit, go vote
Vote Uncommitted.
That was for primaries. Now it’s time to bury nazis.
redacted
Hidenberg handed Hitler the chancellorship. Hidenberg, the only check on the Nazi power, remained president until his death until 1934. After which, using the Enabling Act, Hitler was able to proclaim himself both chancellor and president.
Hitler becomes chancellor because Brünig, Hidenberg, Papen, and Schleicher all think they can control and temper Hitler all while staying in power and keeping the left wing out of power.
redacted
I was contending “Nazis lost the election to Hindenburg … and came to power anyway in 1933 regardless.” Hitler didn’t come to power for some amorphous reasons, but specific decisions by people in power. I agree that material conditions are important, but it’s so vague here that it’s meaningless and can be shifted at any point in this discussion to support your position.
The Nazis agitated support on multiple fronts including electoral politics. Hindenburg surrounded himself with other military conservative and as conditions in the streets continued to worse economically and support swung to the nsdap, they urged him to give support to Hitler. However, the Nazis had won a plurality of the vote in every Reitsrat election starting in 1930.
Electoral politics alone isn’t the answer. Never was. Garnering support on the ground is difficult work.
redacted
Good call naming that disasterous blimp after him, eh?
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Are primaries over? I thought there was more https://edition.cnn.com/election/2024/calendar
Biden has more than half the total delegate count already pledged to him. Primaries are over, Biden has won regardless of the outcome of the remaining primaries and will be the democratic nominee in 2024.
What did anyone actually think Uncommitted was going to take the nomination or something?
Officially? No. Effectively? Yes.
I’m seeing quite a few months of primaries to go
And quite a lot of Biden still supporting Genocide.
So uncommitted it is.
The fact things are this close is amazingly disappointing in humanity as a whole.
On the one side, you have Trump who wants to be a dictator, actively hates anyone who isn’t white and conervative, said he wants to kill his political opponents, tried to overthrow the government, had a 4 year presidency that was basically an episode of Jersey Shore everyday, and idolizes Putin/Hitler/etc.
And then there is Biden, who isn’t super “exciting”, old AF, and supports Israel too much for political reasons, but otherwise has done an alright job as president for 4 years.
How are the polls and the race even remotely this close? It’s no wonder we can’t do something like fix climate change as a society when people are this fracking stupid.
supports Israel too much for political reasons
Now c’mon, does this statement really embrace reality? Aside from it’s toxic passivity, it’s not even true. Biden’s brand of support for Israel has been absolutely toxic politically. He supports Israel because it is the hub of US power projection in the Middle East.
He supports Israel because it is the hub of US power projection in the Middle East.
How is that not a political reason?
How is that not a political reason?
It’s security, not politics.
Meh israel does not provide any security anymore. If anything they make the region less secure and unified against America.
Saudi is bending over backwards to keep supporting israel for America.
Meh israel does not provide any security anymore.
No disrespect meant, but that is a factually ignorant statement to make. We regular people don’t see allot of whats going on in the background.
No we just see israel committing Genocide after Genocide and destabilizing the entire middle east.
We regular people don’t see allot of whats going on in the background.
No we just see israel committing Genocide after Genocide and destabilizing the entire middle east.
Exactly. We don’t see all the behind the scenes stuff for security reasons.
Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think any military/country is allowed to kill civilians to get to their enemies, ever. A country doesn’t get to use an ‘our enemies are in that population zone so we can destroy the population zone to get to them’ excuse.
But there’s a lot of history, security wise, going on between America and Israel, that is not so easily dismissed.
Source? Besides you stayed at a Holiday Inn last night.
For what, Saudi?
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Rfk is pro israel so go green party in that case.
Most people don’t understand probability, they must never have spent any time grinding low % drop rates. Things that have a 28.6% chance are not mind-blowing when they happen.
But, nonetheless it’s a very good reminder that hopefully people will learn from. But people en masse learning a lesson beyond a single 4 year period, let alone two, well now that would be mind-blowing.
Probably the most relevant line in the entire article:
a series of polls have suggested Biden will narrowly beat Trump in the November vote. But with eight months to go, and the polls so tight, this could change and a number of polls have also indicated that Trump will win the election.
Whether Biden wins or loses is going to come down to how well he engages people in key states. Outside of the “blue no matter who” crowd, people have decidedly mixed feelings about voting for a candidate whose strongest argument is that he isn’t Trump. Everything from events in the weeks leading up to the election to the weather (which affects Dems more than Reps) will matter, so rather than leaning on polls that suggest a victory… it might be wise to end those behaviors and policies that have human rights advocates concerned.
I don’t get this point. I feel like Biden’s done a great job as president so far. He’s had a lot of tough issues to deal with as president and so far he’s handled everything really well.
Tell me you don’t care about genocide without saying you don’t care about genocide
It’s going to depend on the severity of several pending scandals and what the Saudis decide to do with oil prices between now and November. Democrats should have an astronomical campaign warchest while the GOP is blowing their wad on the candidate’s legal bills. The Democrats game to lose and that’s their expertise.
