• 3 Posts
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Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: July 15th, 2023

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  • I responded to another post but I don’t think we have high quality post-debate data yet. Most pollsters are affiliated with one party. That’s who pays them for internal polls and where they make their money. The few independent, non-profit poll organizations haven’t released anything I’ve seen. (And there’s like 6 news organizations left that can afford to conduct polls.)

    Either way, though, you’re better off with a poll average than any one poll. We’re a few days away from knowing how likely voters responded to the debate.


  • My initial post was saying to wait for high quality polling data and stop having panic attacks over one debate. The downside risk to Biden dropping out is real and everyone is acting like it’ll be a simple situation where everyone unites around their preferred candidate.

    I didn’t vote for Biden in any primary but I’m not convinced a convention where they nominate (for instance) Harris, Newsom, or Whitmer would be anything but chaos that angered at least some constituencies and led to more Republicans winning up and down the ballot. Everyone is assuming things at this point and I’m saying “Wait to see if this even moves the polls.”








  • It’s allowed but the convention delegates choose the nominee. So, it’d probably have to be agreed ahead of time who the nominee would be and that the other contenders (and donors) would fall in line. Maybe if it’s Whitmer, they promise Harris and Newsome a cabinet secretary position. I’m not sure anyone has that sort of support, though. VP Harris would be the logical option for that sort of transition but she’s not popular and Trump is already making ads saying a vote for Biden means Kamala Harris will be president before the term is over.

    I mean, anything is possible. We’re in uncharted waters. But to me, that’s also the problem. And we don’t know for sure why Biden was off in the debate. Maybe he had a cold. Maybe he’s so old, his childhood memories are in black and white. Maybe a month from now, there will have been a whole new news cycle and the debate will be forgotten.


  • I didn’t vote for Biden in the 2020 primary and I don’t disagree with you on those points. That easily could be how it plays out. I just think if Biden resigns, there’s a high chance of a split in the party (after a contested convention) and we’re all imagining a new candidate we like (or just a “generic democrat”) replacement rather than a real person who possibly has baggage, hasn’t been tested on the national stage (or was bad on it like Kamala Harris), or won’t be able to unite the coalition that backed Biden in 2020.

    Basically, I think it’s a huge gamble this late in the election. Biden shouldn’t have run again and when he did, should have faced a real challenge in the primary. But that isn’t what happened and now I think changing course over one debate isn’t worth the risk.