We effectively have three parties now. There’s the Democrats, the Republicans, and the MAGA extremists. The problem is that the MAGA extremists are simultaneously a much smaller group than either of the two major parties while also being juuuuuust large enough to make sure that neither one of the other two parties actually have a controlling majority.
Somewhat ironically, our system actually was designed to handle this. The entire system was designed so everybody involved would negotiate, compromise, and elect one speaker that everybody can at least agree with. Theoretically, we should be able to handle this without issue. The problem is that our system was barely able to handle a two-party system where both sides dig in their heels, double down, and view any concession at all as a “loss” rather than compromise and negotiate, because at least one side could use its majority to push something through one way or another.
But now we effectively have a three party system. Our system was not designed to handle a situation where three parties refuse to negotiate or compromise over virtually anything, but none have enough of a majority to push anything through. Especially when one of the three sides has openly stated their intent to just watch the whole thing burn.
One of three things is going to have to happen.
The MAGA wing eventually backs down. IMO, doing this would effectively kill whatever influence they have even in their own party as backing down would make this entire ordeal a bigger waste of time than it already is. This would probably lead to the return of Kevin McCarthy as speaker with MTG’s hand crammed right up his ass, but only this time even more emboldened as he would no longer have to worry about the deals he made to get the speaker’s gavel in the first place.
Moderate Republicans are going to have to work with Democrats to get Democrat support for a moderate Republican speaker. However, doing so is guaranteed to come with a whole new list of heavy concessions that would be all but politically suicidal for a Republican to accept. This would also make it nigh-impossible to govern as the Speaker would have the impossible task of balancing the wants of his own party with whatever deal he’d be forced to make with Democrats in order to get the position. (This idea would also be untenable to Democrats, as they’d have no power to enforce whatever agreement they would make once the new speaker is installed, and there would be nothing stopping a new speaker from just telling Democrats where they can shove their agreement.)
Moderate Republicans double-down on their refusal to work with Democrats and instead begrudgingly accept a MAGA-endorsed candidate on MAGA terms just so someone gets the gavel. This would effectively put us right back where we started, with either Kevin McCarthy as speaker or someone worse than Kevin McCarthy, and just like he was, they’d have the Sword of MAGA swinging over their heads forcing him to do their bidding whether he wants to or not. This would significantly embolden the MAGA party, as they would be able to say “You will do what we say or we will oust you just like we did McCarthy”. People like MTG would become exponentially more insufferable than they already are with that kind of power in their hands.
Get the popcorn ready. This is gonna be one hell of a ride.
There were consequences…but they involved the 2nd amendment. The militarization of local police in the 90s made sure that will never again be possible.
I am eager to see how all of this plays out.
We effectively have three parties now. There’s the Democrats, the Republicans, and the MAGA extremists. The problem is that the MAGA extremists are simultaneously a much smaller group than either of the two major parties while also being juuuuuust large enough to make sure that neither one of the other two parties actually have a controlling majority.
Somewhat ironically, our system actually was designed to handle this. The entire system was designed so everybody involved would negotiate, compromise, and elect one speaker that everybody can at least agree with. Theoretically, we should be able to handle this without issue. The problem is that our system was barely able to handle a two-party system where both sides dig in their heels, double down, and view any concession at all as a “loss” rather than compromise and negotiate, because at least one side could use its majority to push something through one way or another.
But now we effectively have a three party system. Our system was not designed to handle a situation where three parties refuse to negotiate or compromise over virtually anything, but none have enough of a majority to push anything through. Especially when one of the three sides has openly stated their intent to just watch the whole thing burn.
One of three things is going to have to happen.
The MAGA wing eventually backs down. IMO, doing this would effectively kill whatever influence they have even in their own party as backing down would make this entire ordeal a bigger waste of time than it already is. This would probably lead to the return of Kevin McCarthy as speaker with MTG’s hand crammed right up his ass, but only this time even more emboldened as he would no longer have to worry about the deals he made to get the speaker’s gavel in the first place.
Moderate Republicans are going to have to work with Democrats to get Democrat support for a moderate Republican speaker. However, doing so is guaranteed to come with a whole new list of heavy concessions that would be all but politically suicidal for a Republican to accept. This would also make it nigh-impossible to govern as the Speaker would have the impossible task of balancing the wants of his own party with whatever deal he’d be forced to make with Democrats in order to get the position. (This idea would also be untenable to Democrats, as they’d have no power to enforce whatever agreement they would make once the new speaker is installed, and there would be nothing stopping a new speaker from just telling Democrats where they can shove their agreement.)
Moderate Republicans double-down on their refusal to work with Democrats and instead begrudgingly accept a MAGA-endorsed candidate on MAGA terms just so someone gets the gavel. This would effectively put us right back where we started, with either Kevin McCarthy as speaker or someone worse than Kevin McCarthy, and just like he was, they’d have the Sword of MAGA swinging over their heads forcing him to do their bidding whether he wants to or not. This would significantly embolden the MAGA party, as they would be able to say “You will do what we say or we will oust you just like we did McCarthy”. People like MTG would become exponentially more insufferable than they already are with that kind of power in their hands.
Get the popcorn ready. This is gonna be one hell of a ride.
We need something akin to a “vote of no confidence” when Congress refuses to work.
You didn’t pass a budget? Great, we get to elect new people who will.
There needs to be some sort of consequences for not governing.
There were consequences…but they involved the 2nd amendment. The militarization of local police in the 90s made sure that will never again be possible.