The betting markets currently have Donald Trump at a 62% chance of winning Tuesday’s election, but this is based on the bettors’ models that rely on social media engagement, which may n…
Definitely. Especially when you also know that the betting markets had Hillary Clinton at 82 percent odds of winning the day before the election and 90 percent odds of UK voters rejecting Brexit. That’s obviously not what happened.
Honestly, I trust the betting markets more than the pollsters. Money on the line makes a difference.
You don’t necessarily get common sense with money, especially if you are very wealthy.
Definitely. Especially when you also know that the betting markets had Hillary Clinton at 82 percent odds of winning the day before the election and 90 percent odds of UK voters rejecting Brexit. That’s obviously not what happened.
Betting markets can be swayed easily by wealth, sure. Another bias is that they’re overwhelmingly frequented by young men.
Also betting on who you think will win, doesn’t always match with who you’re voting for.