willya@lemmyf.uk to politics @lemmy.worldEnglish · 3 months agoHistorian who accurately predicted 9 of last 10 presidential elections makes his 2024 pickwww.usatoday.comexternal-linkmessage-square37fedilinkarrow-up170arrow-down116
arrow-up154arrow-down1external-linkHistorian who accurately predicted 9 of last 10 presidential elections makes his 2024 pickwww.usatoday.comwillya@lemmyf.uk to politics @lemmy.worldEnglish · 3 months agomessage-square37fedilink
minus-squareAbouBenAdhem@lemmy.worldlinkfedilinkEnglisharrow-up42arrow-down3·3 months agoIf a hundred people try to guess ten coin flips, odds are at least one of them will guess nine out of ten. That doesn’t make them an expert.
minus-squareZaktor@sopuli.xyzlinkfedilinkEnglisharrow-up20·3 months agoAnd that’s on coin flips. Many of the last 10 elections weren’t hard to predict.
minus-squareotter@lemmy.dbzer0.comlinkfedilinkEnglisharrow-up12·3 months agoGotta get them an octopus.
minus-squarePlantJam@lemmy.worldlinkfedilinkarrow-up6·3 months agoCoincidentally the odds are that almost exactly one will guess 9 out of 10 correctly, and about four people will guess 8 out of 10 correctly. Odds drop to about 1 in 1000 for guessing all 10 correctly.
If a hundred people try to guess ten coin flips, odds are at least one of them will guess nine out of ten. That doesn’t make them an expert.
And that’s on coin flips. Many of the last 10 elections weren’t hard to predict.
Gotta get them an octopus.
Coincidentally the odds are that almost exactly one will guess 9 out of 10 correctly, and about four people will guess 8 out of 10 correctly. Odds drop to about 1 in 1000 for guessing all 10 correctly.