• Admiral Patrick@dubvee.org
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    2 months ago

    When the other option is Trump (and Project 2025), anyone “uncommitted” at this point is just trying to hold the rest of us (and the world) hostage. Sorry not sorry.

    I cannot respect people who refuse to see the bigger picture. Maybe if/when we ever get rid of the electoral college and elect based on the popular vote then they can indulge their moral purity. Until then, I ask that they join the rest of us in the current reality, join us in compromise to solve the immediate crisis at home, and then present their wish list. Because only one option on the ballot is going to make that wish list even possible.

    “Oh, well, the Democrats need to work for my vote”. In an ideal world, yes. But the reality is the house is on fire and they’re asking the fire department to tap dance before they let them bring out the hoses.

    I’m sympathetic to what’s happening in Palestine, but I am beyond livid that it’s being constantly used as a wedge issue and bargaining chip.

    • ToastedPlanet@lemmy.blahaj.zoneOP
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      2 months ago

      Let’s commit to each other, to electing Vice President Harris and defeating Donald Trump who uses my identity as a Palestinian as a slur.

      One of the points this speech makes is that the actual Uncommited Movement supports Harris. Palestinians in this movement do not see Israel’s genocide of Palestinians in the Gaza strip as a wedge issue to make Democrats lose the election.

      Anyone who is using the genocide as such a wedge issue against the Democrats is not acting in the interest of the Palestinian people. As Trump has publicly stated his intention to allow Israel’s government to complete their genocide of the Gaza strip. Where as Democrats are actively negotiating for a ceasefire.

    • Zaktor@sopuli.xyz
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      2 months ago

      The electoral college is exactly why this is such an important issue. There are a lot of Uncommitted voters in the battleground states. If you’re really that dedicated to winning and stopping Project 2025, appealing to those voters is critical.

      Whatever you wish they’d do, it’s their vote, they can see bigger pictures or “smaller pictures” (a.k.a., their family being murdered with US bombs). If this is a crisis, you should be trying to help resolve the smaller pictures of your fellow Democrats so we can all move together on the “bigger picture”. Instead you just want to berate them to act how you’d like and say “we’ll deal with your family later” (if they’re still alive). It’s not a “wish list”, it’s actual people dying. Your priorities are scary but hypothetical. Theirs are happening right now.

      Alternately, if you just want to bitch on message boards, then stop pretending like you really care about the crisis of the election, because actually caring is not compatible with “sorry not sorry” (about your dead family).

    • kescusay@lemmy.world
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      2 months ago

      What pisses me off the most about that is the game of make-believe about Palestine that the wedgies (I think I’ll call them that from now on) try to play.

      It is 100% understandable and reasonable to be pissed about Israel’s treatment of Palestine. It is not OK to pretend it happened for no reason.

      The fact of the matter is that the whole situation is an atrocious mess with horrid, horrific behavior by absolute monsters on all sides. To downplay any of it, whether the horrific response by Israel to being attacked, or the horrific attack itself, is to do any serious attempt to address it and cut through the Gordian knot of Middle East problems a disservice.

      I’ve maintained, and continue to maintain, that there’s currently no right answer. If Israel collapses, that will be a nightmare the likes of which we haven’t seen in a century, so we have to ensure it can defend itself by supplying it weapons. Netanyahu is a madman who wants to commit genocide against the Palestinians and is desperate to hold onto power to avoid prison, so we have to stop supplying Israel with weapons.

      See that? Both statements are defensible. Both statements have at least an element of truth. It’s fucking complicated. And I don’t have the answer.

      But you know what I’m 100% certain we shouldn’t do? Let Donald fucking Trump get into office to truly fuck things up even more.

      • Zaktor@sopuli.xyz
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        2 months ago

        It is 100% understandable and reasonable to be pissed about Israel’s treatment of Palestine. It is not OK to pretend it happened for no reason.

        Almost nothing happens without reason. That doesn’t make the reason an excuse or justify the response. Nothing Hamas did justifies the war Israel has waged. This is like making sure no one forgets that an abuse victim hit their abuser first.

        I’ve maintained, and continue to maintain, that there’s currently no right answer. If Israel collapses…

        This isn’t something that’s a possible consequence of stopping their war, so why bring it up unless to try to introduce a false dilemma? This isn’t a Gordian knot and we don’t need to solve the Middle East. We simply need to stop a genocide being perpetrated with our support and weapons, with the solution you’ve already acknowledged: “stop supplying them with weapons”.

      • ToastedPlanet@lemmy.blahaj.zoneOP
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        2 months ago

        But you know what I’m 100% certain we shouldn’t do? Let Donald fucking Trump get into office to truly fuck things up even more.

        I 100% agree. Anyone at this stage not committed to electing Kamala Harris and defeating Donald Trump is not acting in the interest of anyone except the fascists, that includes Donald Trump, in the short term. In the long term, everyone being dead to genocide and climate change benefits no one.

        It’s fucking complicated. And I don’t have the answer.

        In the short term, when it comes to the Gaza war, a ceasefire is the solution. The long term solution is the US recognizing Palestine as a nation state and not allowing Israel to be an exception to international law. Achieving this is easier said than done, but it is straightforward.

        If Israel collapses, that will be a nightmare the likes of which we haven’t seen in a century, so we have to ensure it can defend itself by supplying it weapons. Netanyahu is a madman who wants to commit genocide against the Palestinians and is desperate to hold onto power to avoid prison

        Israel’s current government can collapse in the next election after a ceasefire. This would allow Israel to change course without needing it to be destroyed like Nazi Germany. That assumes of course that the far right coalition that is currently in power doesn’t go completely mask off fascist to their own population and seize power by force.

        so we have to stop supplying Israel with weapons.

        Yes.

        edit: typo

  • CaptainKickass@lemmy.world
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    2 months ago

    While I feel strongly that the Palestine people are being systematically erased from the earth I also recognize that there is a real possibility of another trump presidency.

    I want to do something for those that are suffering down the street but there’s crazy person loose in my own house right now and they’re threatening to burn it to the ground.

    • ToastedPlanet@lemmy.blahaj.zoneOP
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      2 months ago

      An important take away from this speech is that those two points are not in conflict with each other according to the Uncommitted Movement. Anyone trying to make it seems like supporting Palestinians and supporting Democrats are mutually exclusive does not have the interest of either group at heart.

        • ToastedPlanet@lemmy.blahaj.zoneOP
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          2 months ago

          The Uncommitted in Uncommitted Movement referred to marking the uncommitted option on Democratic Party primary ballots in certain states. The Uncommitted Movement did this. It was never their intention to contest the DNC ticket in the general election.

  • mlg@lemmy.world
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    2 months ago

    Really like the implication people are making here that the DNC clearly does not care about the amount of constituents in the uncommitted group because they think enough voters will vote against Trump.

    ie we get genocide either way

    yeah I’m so excited to vote this November…

    • ToastedPlanet@lemmy.blahaj.zoneOP
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      2 months ago

      With Trump the genocide will continue until all Palestinians in the Gaza strip are dead and the West Bank is annexed. With Harris we get a ceasefire.

      I could not be more excited with the option to the stop the genocide.

      • mlg@lemmy.world
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        2 months ago

        With Harris we get a ceasefire

        What makes you think that will happen lol? I think someone here even counted the days it took from Biden dropping out to Harris answering the question over Gaza which was “We will continue to support Israel against foreign threats”, ie the same policy as Biden.

        She also ignored pretty much all of the protests that occurred at some of her campaign rallies, so I think it’s safe to assume nothing will improve.

        • Dearth@lemmy.world
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          2 months ago

          Trump wants to deport protesters and arrest people who burn the American flag. Harris seems content with keeping the 1st amendment rights of America’s roughly where it is right now.

          Frankly I’d rather organize and mobilize under Harris than trump

        • ToastedPlanet@lemmy.blahaj.zoneOP
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          2 months ago

          Harris met with the Uncommitted Movement. The Uncommitted Movement endorsed Harris in the speech they released to Mother Jones. Harris isn’t a life long zionist like Biden. Harris picked Tim Walz over a zionist like Josh Shapiro for VP.

          Supporting Israel against Iran doesn’t mean allowing Israel to commit genocide in Gaza.

          She already commented on the scale of the suffering in Gaza saying it was heartbreaking during the DNC.

          It’s safe to assume things will improve.

          • mlg@lemmy.world
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            2 months ago

            Harris met with the Uncommitted Movement. The Uncommitted Movement endorsed Harris in the speech they released to Mother Jones.

            Yeah, and then she denied them from making said speech at the DNC rally.

            An endorsement in a speech that never happened is practically moot, even the Mother Jones article makes this abundantly clear. If anything, this could easily backfire and keep the uncommitted movement from voting.

            Supporting Israel against Iran doesn’t mean allowing Israel to commit genocide in Gaza.

            Unconditionally sending weapons and continuing to give Israel a free pass, even with the antics they play with Iran, is not going to prevent the genocide.

            She already commented on the scale of the suffering in Gaza saying it was heartbreaking during the DNC.

            Any indication of the past 10 moths, if not the past several decades of relations with Israel, should show you this comment means jack shit. Biden said the same thing multiple times, and it took him 5 months until he quietly admitted Israel might have just possibly used weapons incorrectly and caused innocent deaths by mistake.

            Playing up Gaza as a two sided humanitarian crisis, and then blocking anyone on the Palestinian side from talking about it, and then allowing some Israelis to talk about Hamas, is very clear message on her policy. She doesn’t care, she never will.

            Even pretending to make it seem like her campaign was interested was just a farce to gain voters and support. This was a massive “fuck you” from the campaign to the uncommitted movement and anyone involved who thought she would change her policy on Israel.

            If SE Michigan was smart enough to figure out Hillary was a scumbag, they sure as hell aren’t going to fall for a liar pretending to care about stopping an active genocide. That state is going to end up red this year.

            • ToastedPlanet@lemmy.blahaj.zoneOP
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              2 months ago

              We do not know why the Uncommitted Movement was denied a speaking slot or who the decision maker was. All we know is that the Uncommitted Movement got a no. Regardless of who made the decision or why, it was an unforced error from the Democrats.

              An endorsement in a speech that never happened is practically moot, even the Mother Jones article makes this abundantly clear.

              No where in the article does it say or imply anything to that effect. The Uncommitted Movement released the endorsement to the public. It counts. Especially since their goal was to contest Biden during the Democratic Party’s primary election and not the general election. It’s in their name. Uncommitted in Uncommitted Movement refers to marking the uncommitted option on certain states’ primary ballots. So it doesn’t matter that the DNC made a mistake in not airing the speech. The Uncommitted Movement has made their position known. They support Kamala Harris.

              Let’s commit to each other, to electing Vice President Harris and defeating Donald Trump who uses my identity as a Palestinian as a slur.

              Defending Israel from Iran doesn’t have to be giving Israel more offensive weapons. It can just be restocking the iron dome and shooting down Iran’s missiles and drones. Democrats are working to negotiate a ceasefire which is essential to stopping the genocide.

              This is from the Harris campaign.

              https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/watch-official-explains-why-dnc-denied-a-speaking-spot-to-palestinian-american

              What the group, or any people who continue to protest, will see is a president “who is committed to ending the violence, … making sure that we resolve this conflict with a permanent cease-fire that allows Israel to fully secure itself, that fully continues and make sure that we have a full humanitarian aid, but also make sure that Gazans are able to peacefully live and prosper in Gaza,” he said.

              A commitment to defend Israel doesn’t have to be an endorsement of genocide. The campaign is onboard with supporting Gaza. This is already a huge departure from Biden’s rhetoric who would barely mention the Palestinians at all. Actual indications are that the next Democratic administration will be better on this issue and certainly better than the Republicans.

              The Uncommitted Movement supports Kamala Harris because the Democrats are the best option for the Palestinian people. Kamala has made it clear she wants a ceasefire. Trump stated he’s going to let Israel finish the job, ie finish the genocide. Anyone voting for Republicans or refusing to vote for Democrats either wants the genocide to continue or has been misled by people who do.

  • Lauchs@lemmy.world
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    2 months ago

    Your source for a policy position is “many delegates say”? Seriously?

    And even that comes with a “but” clause.

    Really?

    • ToastedPlanet@lemmy.blahaj.zoneOP
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      2 months ago

      The premise of the Uncommitted Movement is to protest in the primary election by voting uncommitted, but not in the general election. It’s in the name. Anyone involved in the movement or advocating for it will explain this. It’s public knowledge. The goal is to move the Democratic Party to the left on issues related to the Palestinian people.

      Still, the war in Gaza remains a flashpoint dividing the Democratic Party. Many of the “uncommitted” delegates say they want Harris to win — but they also want her to listen to the antiwar voters who elected them to the convention.

      These aren’t mutually exclusive positions. Elected politicians are supposed to listen to their constituents. That’s how representative democracy is supposed to work.

      Your argument refuses to acknowledge the publicly stated premise of the Uncommitted Movement. It misrepresents or ignores all sources related to the topic. This is disingenuous at best or trolling at worst.

      • Lauchs@lemmy.world
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        2 months ago

        lolololol, I finally get it, you have no idea what you’re talking about, not just in regards to campaign staff or risk management, but about the actual damned movement! Your entire understanding of literally every point which you’ve brought up isn’t based in reality but rather how you’d like things to be. If it wasn’t so depressing it’d be impressive.

        I feel dumber for having been in this conversation.

        The premise of the Uncommitted Movement is to protest in the primary election by voting uncommitted, but not in the general election. It’s in the name. Anyone involved in the movement or advocating for it will explain this. It’s public knowledge.

        Your source is basically “I feel this way!” Like what, you think the word uncommitted actually secretly means committed Democrat voter regardless? Is this the “people are saying” style of fact gathering???

        Do you literally not understand that the movement leaders are actively trying to negotiate with the Harris team now? Goodness gracious.

        Elected politicians are supposed to listen to their constituents.

        You’re at the point where you’re either purposefully or wildly ignorantly misunderstanding what the word listen means. They’re not saying she needs to actively hear what they are saying, they mean it in the sense of “she needs to acquiesce to our demands.” That’s what listening to our demands/needs means in a political context. Just… Wow kid, wow.

        the publicly stated premise

        lol, the publicly stated premise that, as far as you’ve been able to show, only exists in a speech that wasn’t given? Neat publicly stated premise.

        Good heavens, this is what I get for assuming people are worth engaging with. I mean, the misinformation you’re spreading is useful but like, I don’t want to be a party to lying to people.

        You might look at an interview NPR did with one of the leaders where they have this interesting exchange:

        SIMON: I mean, reading between the lines, it sounds as if your support is conditional upon some of your demands being met or reassessing your position.

        ALAWIEH: I am an individual. As an individual faced with a binary choice between Trump and Kamala Harris on a ticket, I will circle Kamala Harris. But I’m also a movement leader…

        SIMON: Yeah.

        ALAWIEH: …Among movement leaders here. I can’t go to those folks and say, hey, I think Vice President Harris will feel differently. They need to see a plan because in this moment, saying thoughts and prayers, saying feelings, does not cut it.

        In other words, if Kamala does not change course on Gaza, the uncommitted movement as a movement does not look like it will support her.

        I’m pretty done with this.

        That being said, it is flattering to see you borrowing my syntax, even though you’ve used at best/at worst less elegantly it has somewhat improved your style. So that’s nice.

  • Lauchs@lemmy.world
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    2 months ago

    I can’t imagine a competent campaign manager or DNC staffer who would let this happen.

    Sure, the speech as presented isn’t bad (though doesn’t really help Harris) the nightmare scenario is the speaker deviates (in the name of Palestine/“I thought it was too important to be quiet” etc) and the DNC has to play them off. Imagine how bad that coverage and fallout would be.

    Edit: a word

    • ToastedPlanet@lemmy.blahaj.zoneOP
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      2 months ago

      The Uncommited Movement endorses Harris in the speech. So it would actually be good for Harris. In fact going off script would be bad for the Uncommitted Movement and Palestinians by the logic provided in their speech.

      But in this pain, I’ve also witnessed something profound—a beautiful, multifaith, multiracial, and multigenerational coalition rising from despair within our Democratic Party. For 320 days, we’ve stood together, demanding to enforce our laws on friend and foe alike to reach a ceasefire, end the killing of Palestinians, free all the Israeli and Palestinian hostages, and to begin the difficult work of building a path to collective peace and safety. That’s why we are here—members of this Democratic Party committed to equal rights and dignity for all. What we do here echoes around the world.

      The actual Uncommitted Movement sees themselves as an integral part of the Democratic Party. They correctly assert that the Democratic Party is fighting for everyone and that everyone includes the Palestinians. Anyone who can write this speech should know that it is of the utmost importance to stay on script.

      By not airing the speech the DNC is leaving Israel’s genocide in the Gaza strip to be a wedge issue for bad actors. It falls to the rest of us to assert that this is not the case. There is no other secret speech that needs to be said. Free Palestine and Vote Blue No Matter Who are not statements that are at odds in the general election.

      • Lauchs@lemmy.world
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        2 months ago

        Yes, the speech as given is fine (again, not super helpful but not awful) but the risk is the speaker deviates from a speech submitted for DNC approval etc.

        Given the protestors outside have signs accusing Democrats of funding genocide it just seems like an unnecessary risk.

        As for giving a wedge issue for bad actors, that’ll happen regardless of whether one speaker says nice things at the DNC.

        In sum, negligible upside with a significant risk this is not a move I, or any rational campaign staffer, would make.

        • ToastedPlanet@lemmy.blahaj.zoneOP
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          2 months ago

          There is no serious risk of a deviation in giving the speech. This is isn’t a speech by protesters holding ‘Killer Kamala’ signs. This is the speech from the Uncommitted Movement. The speaker is a Democrat state representative herself. The Uncommitted Movement made their point in the Democratic Party’s primary election and now are supporting the Democratic ticket in the general election.

          An endorsement by a major pro-Palestinian movement in the US would be a huge upside to Kamala Harris’ campaign. Again, not just any speaker saying nice things. A Palestinian woman who is a Democrat and state representative. Who, on behalf of a large pro-Palestinian movement, says things that would turn this issue around for the Democrats.

          The real downside by not airing the speech is giving more ammo to bad actors and psyops on social media platforms. Who try to make supporting Palestinians and Democrats mutually exclusive. That kind of misinformation dominating the discourse and depressing voter turnout would negatively impact the Democratic ticket.

          The rational analysis is in favor of letting this speech air. I am not privy to the DNC’s thought process. What could be happening is self-sabotage based on unfounded fear. Fear that is motivated by a misunderstanding of who the Uncommitted Movement is. Anyone protesting to prevent Kamala from winning the general election is either a bad actor or part of a psyop, not the Uncommitted Movement.

          This is is a missed opportunity for the Democrats. However, it need not be a missed opportunity for us. Whenever someone tries to hit Kamala with this topic as a wedge issue, show them this speech. The Uncommitted Movement is with Kamala Harris.

          • Lauchs@lemmy.world
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            2 months ago

            As far as I can tell, the uncommitted movement hasn’t made any official statements supporting Harris or anything to that effect on their website.

            So the DNC has to trust this group’s policy is going to be announced by this speaker at the DNC with zero mechanisms to make sure things go as planned.

            Outside of a few goofs, most voters understand the Dems will be better for Palestine than trump. Even if the uncommitted movement made a serious pledge, a lot of the genocide Joe crowd would just call them party hacks or whatever. At the same time, frankly, among the people most likely to actually vote (those 65+) support is incredibly favourable to Israel, even during this conflict.

            Again, negligible possible gains, huge risk, avoiding this is a no brainer.

            (Unsure how old you are but you might remember the kerfuffle over Bernie in 2016 or the ridicule after Eastwood’s bizzare empty chair speech. A successful convention is one that avoids those embarrassing moments at all costs.)

            I don’t imagine we’re going to agree on this but I appreciate your input.

            • Zaktor@sopuli.xyz
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              2 months ago

              Outside groups somehow universally guaranteeing support support and only then being allowed to join the political process is just not how things work. And they’re not putting a random person or even the group as a whole on stage. It’s a particular person with a reputation and incentives to not make an enemy of the Democratic party and future president.

              This fear that they’re likely to go rogue, or that such a risk would always outweigh the benefits is not realistic, and massively downplaying how important it is to heal this rift. This is the single serious issue weighing on both youth support and the support of critical populations in swing states. Pretending like nothing needs to be done to resolve that is a foolish strategy.

              At the same time, frankly, among the people most likely to actually vote (those 65+) support is incredibly favourable to Israel, even during this conflict.

              This “old people are the only people who vote” meme is just completely disconnected from reality. Old people vote at higher rates, but they were only around 25% of the total number of votes cast in 2020. Around the same number as 18-34 (40M vs. 38M). And they tend to be biased toward Republicans, while 18-34 is strongly Democratic. Chasing voters who aren’t likely to support you while alienating those who are is something with “negligible possible gains” and “huge risk”. Avoiding it is a “no brainer”.

            • ToastedPlanet@lemmy.blahaj.zoneOP
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              2 months ago

              As far as I can tell, the uncommitted movement hasn’t made any official statements supporting Harris or anything to that effect on their website.

              The Uncommitted Movement do not need to indirectly communicate with the DNC via their website. They requested to speak at the DNC and eventually got a no. If the DNC wanted additional assurances they could have just asked. The DNC didn’t even want to look at the speech. They analyzed fewer facts than we are now.

              So the DNC has to trust this group’s policy is going to be announced by this speaker at the DNC with zero mechanisms to make sure things go as planned.

              The same mechanisms as anybody the DNC works with. Again, the speaker is a Democrat. Specifically a Democrat state representative in Georgia. The DNC should be able to trust this person.

              Outside of a few goofs, most voters understand the Dems will be better for Palestine than trump.

              Those goofs are people whose votes the Democrats will need to win the election in November. This speech was an easy way to win them over.

              Even if the uncommitted movement made a serious pledge, a lot of the genocide Joe crowd would just call them party hacks or whatever.

              Which the Uncommitted Movement did. They released the speech to Mother Jones. We need to tell people that the Uncommited Movement has done this.

              At the same time, frankly, among the people most likely to actually vote (those 65+) support is incredibly favourable to Israel, even during this conflict.

              The Democrats need high voter turnout to win. Swing state elections this year could be determined by younger, unlikely voters. Many younger, unlikely voters care about Palestine. So it is critical they know the Democratic Party’s ticket is in the interest of Palestine.

              (Unsure how old you are but you might remember the kerfuffle over Bernie in 2016 or the ridicule after Eastwood’s bizzare empty chair speech. A successful convention is one that avoids those embarrassing moments at all costs.)

              Those were 8 and 12 years ago respectively. So recent. The kerfuffle you are referring to is a major source of grievance for the kind of people who would otherwise support the current Democratic Party’s ticket.

              Your argument misses that these examples are in fact the opposite problems. The DNC went out of their way to put down Bernie’s campaign. Where as the RNC were completely blindsided by Clint Eastwood’s improv performance. The RNC couldn’t be bothered to get Clint Eastwood to commit to an agreed on speech.

              The DNC again went out of their way to block a speech that could have benefited them and is yet another unforced error from Democrats. Rather than allowing the DNC mistake cost the Democrats another election we should inform people what an actual pro-Palestinian movement thinks.

              Again, negligible possible gains, huge risk, avoiding this is a no brainer.

              It is a no brainer, but not in the way your argument is describing it. No matter how many times your argument minimizes the benefits of and invents risks for this speech for Democrats doesn’t make it true. The DNC’s analysis is a moot point anyway. We can see that this speech is a useful tool against people wrongly using the topic as a wedge issue. We should use the speech.

              I don’t imagine we’re going to agree on this but I appreciate your input.

              Your argument’s analysis isn’t based on the available facts. Your argument invents a ‘reasonable’ DNC response when we are in the dark about the actual reasoning. Why imagine a world where the DNC did the right thing when we can simply do the right thing for them. Show people the speech.

              • Lauchs@lemmy.world
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                2 months ago

                It really seems like you are asserting things without regard for evidence or observable reality. You can’t just say “there’s no risk of deviating from the speech.” That’s a very bold assertion made entirely without evidence!

                The Uncommitted Movement do not need to indirectly communicate with the DNC via their website.

                Yes, they kind of do. That’s the thing. It is very strange to have a “movement” say they are going to make a significant strategic decision but only if they are able to do it live and on primetime. That works for WWE and reality television but not politics. And it is a strategic switch that seems to only exist in this one copy of a speech, not on the website or anything where you would expect to see a significant policy switch.

                The same mechanisms as anybody the DNC works with.

                Yes, except those speakers have all been part of groups that are enthusiastically and vocally for Harris.

                Again, you have this group that have been pretty anti-establishment then promising they are going to radically shift gears and are now going to be vocal for Harris? Seems off.

                The Democrats need high voter turnout to win. Swing state elections this year could be determined by younger, unlikely voters. Many younger, unlikely voters care about Palestine. So it is critical they know the Democratic Party’s ticket is in the interest of Palestine.

                You should look at the swing state data! https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/08/10/us/elections/times-siena-poll-likely-electorate-crosstabs.html - For the “blue wall” https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/08/17/us/elections/times-siena-poll-likely-electorate-crosstabs.html - For the interesting possible swings (Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina.)

                In both, you can see that Harris leads or is close with 65+ (a group that is twice the size of the younger voters and votes reliably.)

                Nate Silver also broke down the math pretty well in an aptly titled post “Your friends are not a representative sample of public opinion”

                Let’s do some math here. About 51 percent of the country voted for Biden in 2020. Of that 51 percent, 14 percent say they don’t plan to vote for Biden this time in the head-to-head matchup against Trump. Of those, 13 percent list Gaza or something related as their top issue. And of that 13 percent, 49 percent4 are more sympathetic to Palestine than to Israel (and only 17 percent are more sympathetic to Israel; the rest are in the both/neither camp). So we get:

                .51 * .14 * .13 * .49 = .005

                That is, 0.5 percent of the American electorate are 2020 Biden voters who say they’ll withdraw their vote from Biden because he’s too far to their right on Israel.

                (https://www.natesilver.net/p/your-friends-are-not-a-representative)

                You might also look at how the issue fits in with the broader public, where even a third of Democrats oppose a ceasefire if Hamas does not release the hostages (the ones they haven’t murdered yet): https://today.yougov.com/politics/articles/49384-majorities-support-a-ceasefire-in-gaza

                Like I said, huge risk with marginal upside. Even if the odds are against it, the outcome could be disastrous. Think about Russian Roulette with a 1/100 chance, sure the odds are in your favour but would you play that game for a nickel?

                • ToastedPlanet@lemmy.blahaj.zoneOP
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                  2 months ago

                  It really seems like you are asserting things without regard for evidence or observable reality. You can’t just say “there’s no risk of deviating from the speech.” That’s a very bold assertion made entirely without evidence!

                  No, it’s not. Again, she is an elected Democrat. If the DNC can’t trust their own elected officials then they can’t trust anyone. Your argument is trying to make it sound like a random protester would be giving the speech.

                  And it is a strategic switch that seems to only exist in this one copy of a speech, not on the website or anything where you would expect to see a significant policy switch.

                  Their website is for general information and donations. Not for sending smoke signals to the DNC. They can communicate over the phone or by email. The Uncommitted Movement do not have to signal anything publicly on their donation page for the DNC to take them seriously.

                  Again, you have this group that have been pretty anti-establishment then promising they are going to radically shift gears and are now going to be vocal for Harris? Seems off.

                  The Uncommited part in Uncommitted Movement referrers to the uncommitted option on certain state’s primary ballots for the Democratic Party. The intention of the movement was always to contest Biden during the primary election and not the general election. There is no switching gears, that was always the plan.

                  All of the above is a moot point anyway. The DNC is over. They did not allow the speech to be given by anyone.

                  Those likely voters are voting. It will come down to unlikely voters. This the margin of victory in 2020.

                  https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/president

                  Many of the races in battle ground states came down to less than a million votes. .5% of 340 million people is 1.7 million people. In other words, enough people to make the Democrats lose critical swing states.

                  Rather than misleading people about reality and blowing off voters in an election where every vote counts, consider telling them the truth instead. The Uncommitted Movement supports Kamala Harris. The speech is evidence of that. Arguments trying to make this a wedge issue against the Democrats are demonstrably false. The Democratic Party’s ticket is good for the Palestinian people, don’t let any misinformation about that go unchallenged.

                  I’m talking about arguments like this one in this comment section:

                  Really like the implication people are making here that the DNC clearly does not care about the amount of constituents in the uncommitted group because they think enough voters will vote against Trump.

                  ie we get genocide either way

                  yeah I’m so excited to vote this November…

                  Trump is going to let all of the Palestinians be killed. Arguments in support of the Palestinian people should be trying to energize people to vote for Kamala and to defeat Trump this November. However the rhetoric in the above argument is designed to de-energize voters. We can argue against that rhetoric with facts like this speech.