Polls are crap
It’s a little bit notable how they change over time, but mostly it is just a bunch of poor methodology noise
But, I do feel it’s relevant to point out that even in polling land Biden has been gaining for the last few weeks and it’s notable which media outlets are pretending it is the opposite of that (like severely the opposite) and to wonder why that is
Fun fact: After firing Nate Silver from 538, Disney dumped their whole model and replaced it with one that always shows Biden winning. Nate Silver is still using the pre-this year’s rigged model, and Biden’s down to like 20% odds.
This one?
https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model
Show Biden behind, but not down to 20%. Why lie about that?
That page looks to only show polls and has the actual model paywalled?
https://www.natesilver.net/p/what-democrats-should-do-next – “In our model, Biden has fallen from a 35 percent chance against Trump before the debate to 28 percent now.”
That’s from July 3rd…
You think he’s doing exponentially better since then? The trend seems to be downward…
The same source shows that Biden is up 2% since the 3rd, and a bit more over the past 10 days.
https://lemmy.world/post/17665513
Where does Silver publish his model?
The results are on a paid blog. At least I’m not aware of it being available anywhere for free. He posts on formerly Twitter, though.
https://www.natesilver.net/
Oh wow, I didn’t know he left. I’m going to trust 538 much less.
Just take 538 in aggregate.
Nate Silver still forecasts. You’re not losing anything.