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Joined 10 months ago
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Cake day: April 4th, 2024

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  • That’s a good article, thanks for sharing.

    Many (most?) experts agree that the crisis isn’t yet over (and possibly has not peaked yet), and China is in for long-term trouble. Many Chinese have ploughed their life savings (in the form of pre-payments) into their properties, and are now left alone with homes half-built, with no water or electricity, leaving their buyers with a shattered future and debts that they have to pay for the next 20 or so years. The Chinese government doesn’t provide compensation of any form for the damage done to these buyers.

    Real estate was once considered a safe investment in China, but younger Chinese -if and when they can even afford it at all- might reconsider buying a house, and this in turn will be another major obstacle for the market to revive imo.


  • For example, the Institute of International Finance has long been estimating China’s debt-to-GDP ratio as more than 300 percent (and that was even before the pandemic), and so did many other independent analysts (Fidelity is among them if I am not mistaken). You’ll find ample evidence across the web about this.

    Official numbers are not available, and even if they are in some subset categories, they often appear to be not very accurate. But the "350%-400% hidden debt to GDP ratio” estimate is widely considered reasonable from several independent analyses.