I am a low income person on the verge of moving because my finances are so bad. I was considering moving to a place with a shared bathrooms and over 10 people living in the building. The deposit on the place so far is a trivial amount and I can abandon the lease without significant consequence. I work remotely.
I am trying not to be irrationally concerned by click bate, but also would prefer not to die as a result of bird flu during the next year if that’s a possibility. I’m not sure if this is a “when not if” situation or if the new media and government keep bringing this up but realistically the chances are low. I am generally good at parsing out bullshit from genuine data, but am at a loss with this one.
Do you think it would be a mistake to move into this new place? I am already feeling reluctant because it’s in a less urban area and I don’t really like critters. I could abandon it and try to get a cheap place in a different area with my own bathroom. Please let me know if you happen to see this what you think.
Assume that I find 30 percent risk of bird flu spreading in the next year with a R value greater than 1 to be the point at which I abandon this move.
I have also even considered things like just leasing a car, living in it, and trying to head as far north as possible, find some place to rent in the middle of nowhere or make a campsite and start hoarding food somehow. (This would involve more critters, unfortunately, but they likely don’t pose an existentialist threat.) If everyone is going to get this bird flu thing and many die, it seems like severe isolation may be the best way to survive.
I’m’ from Europe and drink fresh milk daily, eat Camembert and other unpasteurised cheeses, and raw meat (filet américain), never had any issue. Of course it’s not for young children and pregnant women… do you Americans see this the same way we consider drinking tap water in India ?
What part of Europe? Is you food coming from a very long input chain with many inputs? The chances of contamination increases with each input source and every additional step in the delivery process.
Frankly, there’s nothing to worry about right now. The concern is the potential for a new flu variant to emerge that the public has little to no existing immunity for, however that variant has not emerged and is not very likely to emerge, there just exists a small chance that it may. The only thing you should be doing is keeping your distance from birds and getting your flu shot.
This specific death happened to an elderly person with a bunch of other health conditions, which is common for the flu. Thousands of people die from the flu every year, and it doesn’t make the news. What you can be sure of is that H5N1 stories are generating clicks for the media.
This is incorrect. I linked the data in my comment. '21-'22 saw the fewest flu deaths in recent memory, but there were still almost 5000 documented cases.
Edit: Totally missed that '20-'21 was missing from this data. Turns out the CDC didn’t issue estimates for that season
With the dearth of migrant labor to perform the culls, an indentured servant class that owe their homes to Tyson chicken, and a polar vortex It’s not looking good. We’d be very lucky to avoid another pandemic.
I would avoid all poultry products to ease the strain on the industry. With Covid rates also rising I would mask up on public transit and any enclosed space at work.
My issue is I do not trust RFK to allow the FDA and CDC to do their job.
Ugh. How big of a problem is this going to be?
That depends on whether the virus starts spreading human-to-human with each infected person infecting more than one other person.
If it does not, then things look like the SARS outbreak in 2002-2004, where a few people get sick, and a few people die.
If it starts spreading with R₀ > 1, then pretty much everybody gets it, and a significant number die.
We could reduce the risk of the latter with measures like:
However, it seems really unlikely that we’ll actually do so.
OP, you seem smart.
I am a low income person on the verge of moving because my finances are so bad. I was considering moving to a place with a shared bathrooms and over 10 people living in the building. The deposit on the place so far is a trivial amount and I can abandon the lease without significant consequence. I work remotely.
I am trying not to be irrationally concerned by click bate, but also would prefer not to die as a result of bird flu during the next year if that’s a possibility. I’m not sure if this is a “when not if” situation or if the new media and government keep bringing this up but realistically the chances are low. I am generally good at parsing out bullshit from genuine data, but am at a loss with this one.
Do you think it would be a mistake to move into this new place? I am already feeling reluctant because it’s in a less urban area and I don’t really like critters. I could abandon it and try to get a cheap place in a different area with my own bathroom. Please let me know if you happen to see this what you think.
Assume that I find 30 percent risk of bird flu spreading in the next year with a R value greater than 1 to be the point at which I abandon this move.
I have also even considered things like just leasing a car, living in it, and trying to head as far north as possible, find some place to rent in the middle of nowhere or make a campsite and start hoarding food somehow. (This would involve more critters, unfortunately, but they likely don’t pose an existentialist threat.) If everyone is going to get this bird flu thing and many die, it seems like severe isolation may be the best way to survive.
Please help.
RFK jr will help out here, right?
/s
I’m’ from Europe and drink fresh milk daily, eat Camembert and other unpasteurised cheeses, and raw meat (filet américain), never had any issue. Of course it’s not for young children and pregnant women… do you Americans see this the same way we consider drinking tap water in India ?
Anecdotal evidence sure is convincing!
What part of Europe? Is you food coming from a very long input chain with many inputs? The chances of contamination increases with each input source and every additional step in the delivery process.
Frankly, there’s nothing to worry about right now. The concern is the potential for a new flu variant to emerge that the public has little to no existing immunity for, however that variant has not emerged and is not very likely to emerge, there just exists a small chance that it may. The only thing you should be doing is keeping your distance from birds and getting your flu shot.
This specific death happened to an elderly person with a bunch of other health conditions, which is common for the flu. Thousands of people die from the flu every year, and it doesn’t make the news. What you can be sure of is that H5N1 stories are generating clicks for the media.
Well, not every year. Not 2020.
Because of masking for COVID.
This is incorrect. I linked the data in my comment. '21-'22 saw the fewest flu deaths in recent memory, but there were still almost 5000 documented cases.
Edit: Totally missed that '20-'21 was missing from this data. Turns out the CDC didn’t issue estimates for that season
Do “cases” equal “deaths”? I’m genuinely curious.
Please refer to the link in my first comment
Gotcha, thanks. I should have read that better.
However, you might note that they skipped 2020-2021. Because the flu deaths for that season were insignificant.
You’re correct, the CDC didn’t issue estimates that year because their sample size of hospitalizations was too low
With the dearth of migrant labor to perform the culls, an indentured servant class that owe their homes to Tyson chicken, and a polar vortex It’s not looking good. We’d be very lucky to avoid another pandemic.
I would avoid all poultry products to ease the strain on the industry. With Covid rates also rising I would mask up on public transit and any enclosed space at work.
My issue is I do not trust RFK to allow the FDA and CDC to do their job.