I’d like to remind everyone that 8 years ago, the polls showed Hillary was going to trounce Trump pretty handedly. There was tons of discussion after the election about how the polls could be so wrong.
I think Fivethityeight’s explanation went something like…
If a candidate is only polling 40% to their opponents’s 60%, and you were to run the election 10 times with a different sampling of voters each time, it doesn’t mean that the candidate will lose by 60% every time. It means they’re going to win four times out of ten.
Don’t let polls lull you into either complacency or despair. The only thing polls are really good for is giving pundits something to talk about in the 24 hour news cycle. Polls don’t decide the election. Only actual votes on actual ballots that are actually submitted in time decide the election.
And this messaging is a large part of what led to low democrat turnout when Hillary was running for office. Her early campaign had basically been “lol don’t worry about this, he’s an idiot who doesn’t gave a chance of winning.” It wasn’t until about a month before the actual election that someone in her campaign team realized this would lull voters into a false sense of security. Suddenly, their entire tone changed from “he has no chance of winning” to “oh for fucks sake please go vote”. But it was too little, too late. Democrat voters stayed home, and handed the win to Trump.
Well this time Harris has been telling everyone that Trump is trying to end democracy from the beginning
I count cards in blackjack, and let me tell ya, when your winning chance is 52% that means you’re lose chance is 48% and 48% to lose feels like 90%.
True story: half the country doesn’t even know she’s in yet.
Had to tell 3 peeps at dinner yesterday what’s up.
I’m not alone.I get how there are people who don’t follow politics, but man… how do you avoid news like this?
I mean, technically, she’s not in until the convention… but you would think it would be common knowledge unless you’re a recluse or a child who doesn’t know most people by name.
Someone more famous than I (Meryl Streep?) once suggested that upon graduation, one should be mandated to drive a taxi for a year, just to see what it’s “really like” out there.
You’ll have to take my word for it, she’s so right.People still talk about litter boxes in schools for the furries - with a phone attached to their palms 24/7 that’ll PROVE to them in seconds that it never happened…and, yet…
People still talk about litter boxes in schools for the furries - with a phone attached to their palms 24/7 that’ll PROVE to them in seconds that it never happened…and, yet…
…yet they find that one thread on Nextdoor where one person claimed that it happened in their child’s classroom and a lot of self-righteous pearl clutching. Therefore, that must be the truth.
I just worked customer service for a decade. After awile you just take it in stride when an adult is functionally illiterate. Leaving aside the people who think Democrat and Republican have to do with the dictionary definitions of Democracy and Republic and nothing else.
I honestly wish I could look away and just be blissfully ignorant. Fuck I’m not even American.
Tell me about it. It’s practically impossible to avoid american news and it’s fucking infuriating. I’m so sick of hearing about trump and biden or democrats and republicans etc yet it’s pretty much impossible to avoid unless you dont use social media at all. I get that a huge chunk of the English speaking internet is made up of Americans but holy fuck shut the fuck up, as a Canadian I’m fucking sick of their brain dead sports team politics, especially cause that bullshit is infecting Canada now. We even have Canadian trumpers ffs.
Fuck you and your dumbass politics america, hurry up and implode already so I can at least be entertained instead of annoyed.
To anyone thats gonna reply and tell me how I should care because it’s gonna affect me blah blah blah I dont fucking care. Not even gonna read any replies this comment gets I just wanted to vent. So dont waste your time replying.
How? I’ll bet half the world knows, and probably most of them don’t want to
We’re painfully aware. Please get everyone who’s eligible to go vote, we can’t, but are still affected.
How anyone in the US doesn’t know is beyond me. Hell, you’d have to not go outside, and not go online. Which you’d imagine to be fairly rare.
Those margins are all uncomfortably close - “wipes out” is needlessly bombastic.
I think that “wipes out” here is referring to the lead that Trump had in the polls previously. All the states went from a clear lead for Trump over Biden, to basically even, with one exception showing a clear lead.
I think that it suggests a competitive race, rather than one side coasting to victory. It is hard to draw concrete conclusions still, but the clear lead is definitely gone
Yeah. Like everyone is saying it’s dangerous to infer a democrat win on the back of this polling… but I think we can conclude that swing states have responded favourably to swapping her in.
Just 10 days ago people were saying it’s too late to trade horses because no one knows her so we’re stuck with Biden. These polls thoroughly demonstrate that assertion was incorrect.
I for one was completely wrong. People LOVE Harris.
